[SMM analysis] the positive pole of negative electrode is the same as the pressure of reducing price and production in cold winter.

SMM12 2: this year, the decline of new energy vehicles, affected the hearts of upstream material manufacturers. At the end of the year, just after the upsurge of downstream stock and procurement in October, cathode material manufacturers cut production and transaction prices in November. At the same time, the transaction situation of anode materials is not optimistic. Some manufacturers reduced production by 50% and entered the de-inventory stage. Some industry insiders said that in the anode material factory, needle coke procurement has stalled, long single supply is nearing the end, loose orders are not enough to support the original procurement volume and production.

At the same time, industry insiders are still pessimistic about the situation of anode materials next year, but are confident of the year after tomorrow's recovery for two reasons. First, the subsidy policy will continue to decline next year, which is still good or bad news for the new energy vehicle industry. However, when the policy retreats completely the year after next, the new energy industry may enter a healthier state and carry out healthy competition. consumers may be more stable in consumption of new energy vehicles because of the popularity of power stations and further changes in their concepts. Second, 2020 will be the year of reshuffle for small negative manufacturers. Due to weak downstream demand, many small manufacturers do not have enough strength to support them safely through 2020. When many players are eliminated, the competitive environment will be relatively relaxed in 2021. The remaining manufacturers may usher in a new spring.

As the main raw material of anode material, needle coke still has a large gap at home and abroad, regardless of quality or price. The current price of domestic needle coke is about 10, 000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream imported needle coke fluctuates in the range of 15000 yuan / ton to 20, 000 yuan / ton. Because the cost of the anode material in the battery is about 15%, which is much lower than the 40% of the cathode material cost, if the battery factory chooses the anode material with lower price and poor performance, the performance of the cathode material is affected. This is not worth the loss. Therefore, when the battery factory selects and buys the anode material, it takes the quality as the primary standard on the whole. In order to meet the requirements of the battery factory for the negative electrode, the anode material factory chose to abandon the domestic needle coke.

Due to the low price, domestic needle coke has attracted the pursuit of small negative material factories. Under the situation of weak demand this year, the small negative material factory shrank further, resulting in the embarrassment that the domestic raw coke could not be sold at a low price. This situation further widens the price gap between domestic needle coke and imported needle coke. At the end of the year, the selling situation further intensified, there was a small amount of 6000-7000 yuan / ton low quotation, has reached the break-even point.

Due to the stimulation of the national new energy policy, manufacturers are pursuing high energy density, which stimulates manufacturers to explore silicon-carbon negative electrode. Now, with the continuous decline of the new energy policy, the rationality of the market continues to recover, the progress of silicon carbon anode slows down, and more manufacturers choose artificial graphite negative electrode with more stable performance and cost. Some manufacturers have slowed or suspended research and development and production plans for silicon-carbon anodes, according to insiders.

The downstream of both positive and negative electrode materials are batteries, and the situation of the same advance and retreat is obvious. On the cathode material side, the downstream weak expectations are conservatively expected to last for a quarter, while the negative electrode material side is also pessimistic about the first quarter of next year. SMM will continue to track the negative trend, coupled with the positive trend, for follow-up reports.